Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.990676 1.161879 1.353798 1.584918 1.855793 2.163338 2.539250
2024-10-13 0.685350 0.900151 1.169362 1.531766 2.007434 2.611369 3.437985
2024-10-20 0.521973 0.743095 1.043127 1.480424 2.102718 2.958502 4.228688
2024-10-27 0.416852 0.633437 0.946819 1.433976 2.174221 3.260401 4.982375
2024-11-03 0.358368 0.576106 0.909127 1.456475 2.336731 3.702896 5.996055
2024-11-10 0.330374 0.558541 0.925274 1.558877 2.631010 4.380828 7.472526
2024-11-17 0.297639 0.526774 0.912063 1.608659 2.843243 4.952678 8.858224
2024-11-24 0.264211 0.487779 0.879676 1.618567 2.985312 5.421540 10.131503
2024-12-01 0.233165 0.447721 0.838679 1.605178 3.080652 5.816607 11.323991
2024-12-08 0.207826 0.414112 0.803968 1.596986 3.181971 6.232488 12.611663
2024-12-15 0.189082 0.390234 0.783781 1.612819 3.330046 6.754157 14.179042
2024-12-22 0.165565 0.353249 0.732682 1.558924 3.329265 6.979709 15.172421
2024-12-29 0.160455 0.354219 0.759333 1.672027 3.696738 8.018023 18.065359
2025-01-05 0.140891 0.321414 0.711262 1.618846 3.700814 8.294435 19.345834
2025-01-12 0.123981 0.291898 0.665978 1.564747 3.693986 8.544470 20.603604
2025-01-19 0.109710 0.266262 0.625620 1.515648 3.690659 8.800431 21.913300
2025-01-26 0.102037 0.255072 0.616749 1.539437 3.863543 9.490100 24.382748
2025-02-02 0.100193 0.257813 0.641110 1.647713 4.259472 10.771283 28.537752
2025-02-09 0.095155 0.251767 0.643217 1.700351 4.522704 11.762077 32.099903
2025-02-16 0.088367 0.240176 0.629816 1.710827 4.677671 12.499138 35.102546
2025-02-23 0.081105 0.226236 0.608398 1.696670 4.764193 13.068299 37.732319
2025-03-02 0.074822 0.214059 0.589969 1.688008 4.864674 13.689580 40.610289
2025-03-09 0.070176 0.205805 0.581037 1.704749 5.039689 14.542215 44.299942